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Executive Summary

1. Housing and Land Supply Situation

Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF) forecasts that in the next
four years the annual average completion of new private housing units
will be about 18,000 units. This represents an approximately 60%-increase
compared to the corresponding figure of the preceding decade (2006-2015)
of approximately 11,000 units. However, in terms of total residential Gross
Floor Area (GFA) completed, the corresponding increase is estimated to
be less than 30%. In other words, we are expecting private homes that are
increasingly smaller in size.

Despite the expected increase of short-term housing supply in the
private sector, medium- to long-term land supply situation still warrants
great concerns, and public housing supply still trails significantly. Whilst the
expected average completion of 18,000 private homes per year during 2016
to 2019 will satisfy the corresponding supply target stipulated in the “Long
Term Housing Strategy” (LTHS) of 18,000 units per year, it is expected that
only less than 100,000 public housing units (Public Rental Housing (PRH) and
Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) units) will be completed over the period
2016 to 2020. This falls 30% short of the of the public housing supply target
prescribed by the LTHS, which is 140,000 public housing units over the next
five years.
Expected completion of residential units

Notes : (^) Assume that the total housing target stipulated in the Long Term Housing
Strategy is evenly distributed over the 10-year period.
(?) Question marks denote unavailable information.
(*) Figures are OHKF projections for the four years 2016 to 2019.
Sources: Transport and Housing Bureau, Rating and Valuation Department, and Our Hong
Kong Foundation.

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