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An Expected Increase in Private Housing Completion

Completion of New Private Housing Units
Units 1987 – 1996
40,000 Average: 29,900 units 1997 – 2006 Forecast
Average: 24,800 units 2017 – 2020
35,000
Average:
20,200 units
30,000
25,000

20,000 2007 – 2016
Average: 10,900 units
15,000 +85%
10,000

5,000

0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sources: Rating and Valuation Department, Buildings Department, Lands Department, Town Planning Board,
Our Hong Kong Foundation.

1. OHKF updated the forecast of future supply of private housing (Please see Appendix for details).
OHKF forecasts that in the next four years the annual average completion of new private housing
units will be approximately 20,200 units. This represents a c85%-increase compared to the
corresponding figure of the preceding decade (2007-2016) of about 10,900 units. Yet, in terms of
gross floor area (GFA), the increase is only c50%, foretelling a continued trend of shrinking
average unit size. In particular, we expect that the annual average completion in 2018 to 2020 will
be 21,000 units, and possibly surpassing 24,000 units in 2019, the highest since 2004.

2. Although future supply is forecast to barely meet the government’s short term target, due to a
prolonged period of shortage, there has been significant pent-up demand yet to be satisfied.
Therefore, it is necessary to re-examine the supply target of the LTHS.

3. OHKF publishes the estimated completion of private units in the next four years and the
information of each development project by collecting and compiling public information from the
Buildings Department, Lands Department and Town Planning Board; analysing projects held by
di erent developers and conducting site inspection when necessary to determine actual
construction progress.

4. It is worth noting that OHKF forecast the completion to be 16,000 units in 2016, which is closer
to the actual completion (14,600 units) compared to the Rating and Valuation Department’s
original estimate (18,200 units).

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