Page 21 - Land2.5_EN_Final_C

Massive Redevelopment is Needed

Assumed No. of units to be
Building age No. of units
demolition rate redeveloped
>70 403,600 85% 343,100

61-70 540,400 45% 244,100

51-60 568,300 5% 28,400
Total 615,600

Sources: Planning Department, Our Hong Kong Foundation.

1. Assuming that the demolition rates to be 85%, 45%, and 5% respectively in the >70, 61-70 and
51-60 age group, there will be more than 600,000 units that need to be redeveloped in the next
three decades, of which nearly 220,000 are public housing units and 400,000 are private
housing units. In the process of redevelopment, not only do we need su cient land / units to
accommodate the a ected tenants, but also the bu er capacity for the accommodation of
construction machinery and materials, and to support the corresponding government,
institutional or community facilities needs. Decades of large-scale reconstruction will generate
significant demand for land.

2. In the government’s estimation, only about 300,000 units are expected to be redeveloped in the
next three decades. We believe this represents a sharp underestimation of future reconstruction
needs. According to the redevelopment plans announced by the Housing Authority and the Hong
Kong Housing Society, the government predicts that only 22,000 public housing units require
redevelopment. This is likely to be a large underestimation taking into consideration that nearly
670,000 public housing units will be over 50 years old in 2046.

21