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Following the change of the public-private housing supply target ratio, the annual average supply target for public
housing has been raised from 28,000 units to 31,500 units.
Despite a higher LTHS supply target, the actual supply forecast shows that there would be even fewer completions
in the immediate future.
For the next four years (2019/20 - 2022/23), public housing supply is forecasted to be 18,300 units per annum, which
is 10% lower compared to the previous rolling four years (2018/19 - 2021/22). The updated forecast will miss the LTHS
target of 31,500 units per year by a larger shortfall of 42%, compared to a shortfall of 30% last year. (See Appendix II for
details of public housing projects)

It is worth noting that the completions are expected to drop significantly to only about 14,500 units in 2022/23, which
is less than half of the Government’s target.

Adding to the future misses is the cumulative past shortfalls. For the past few years, the LTHS targets were slightly different
but hovered around 28,000 units per year. Therefore, if a supply target of 28,000 units is assumed for 2009 - 2018, a
cumulative deficit of 130,000 units will be recorded compared to the average annual completion of 15,000 units.

On one hand, the public housing supply forecast is being revised down, and on the other hand, the
supply target is being raised. The pull of these two opposing forces makes the likelihood of public
housing supply meeting its target even dimmer in the future.

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